Intelligence over time
Browse the original dated editions. Historical analysis reflects the evidence and uncertainty at the time, and may differ from the current situation.
ASEAN begins consultations on Myanmar in Metro Manila on July 20, ahead of its main foreign ministers’ meeting on July 21, where ministers are expected to address the Myanmar conflict, South China Sea disputes and the Middle East conflict.
As of July 19, the reported US blockade of Iranian ports remains operative amid continuing US-Iran strikes, regional missile and drone activity, and sharply reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Russian authorities reported that drone strikes overnight into 18 July caused fires at warehouse sites in Kotovsk and Elektrostal and an oil depot in Noginsk, with nine deaths, more than 80 injuries and precautionary evacuations reported.
Iran said on July 18 it had suspended implementation of commitments under its interim arrangement with the United States, while a seventh consecutive night of US strikes, Iranian attacks on Gulf infrastructure and fresh attacks on merchant vessels heightened risk around the Strait of Hormuz.
As of July 18, Russian attacks on Ukrainian port areas and reported Ukrainian operations against Russian maritime logistics are exposing commercial shipping in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov to sustained conflict risk, disrupting some port activity without closing the wider Ukrainian export corridor.
US enforcement actions and strikes linked to its reported blockade of Iranian ports are constraining passage through the Strait of Hormuz, although available data do not show a complete halt to navigation.
As of July 17, Iran is reported to have asked Yemen’s Houthis to stand ready to close Bab el-Mandeb if U.S. strikes hit Iranian power infrastructure, but there is no public confirmation of an order, a closure or a new shipping attack campaign.
The October 2025 Gaza ceasefire remains formally in place as of 17 July, but Israeli strikes on 14–15 July, expanding access-restricted areas and constrained cargo access continue to undermine its implementation.
Israeli strikes and shelling killed at least five Palestinians across Gaza on 16 July, extending a pattern of lethal incidents while the ceasefire that took effect on 10 October 2025 remains formally in force.
As of 16 July, US forces are actively enforcing their renewed blockade of Iranian ports after disabling a tanker bound for Kharg Island, while Iran has launched missiles and drones toward Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait.
The United States has renewed its naval blockade of Iranian ports and conducted further strikes, while Iran says the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and maritime access through the chokepoint is contested.
The United States has restored a maritime blockade on Iranian ports, oil terminals and coastal waters, creating an active enforcement regime for Iran-linked shipping while fighting around the Strait of Hormuz keeps navigation hazardous.
EU restrictions on Sudan-origin gold and mining chemicals take effect on 15 July, requiring EU-linked traders, financiers, insurers and suppliers to screen covered transactions and exports.
Nine European partner countries and Ukraine have committed to align national policies with existing EU restrictive measures targeting nine people and 45 entities linked to Russia’s military-industrial complex and shadow fleet.
The United States says its blockade of vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports will begin at 20:00 UTC on July 14, as renewed US-Iran fighting around the Strait of Hormuz raises risks for Gulf shipping and energy flows.
As of 13 July 2026, the United States has announced it will restore a blockade of Iranian ports from 14 July while resuming strikes on Iranian military targets after renewed attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
The EU and 14 countries have reaffirmed the 2016 Philippines–China South China Sea arbitral award as final and binding on the parties, while Beijing continues to reject it and no enforcement mechanism has been announced.
As of 13 July, renewed US-Iran strikes and attacks on commercial vessels have left passage through the Strait of Hormuz insecure and disrupted, with neither side’s claim of control independently established.
Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is closed after a vessel incident, while US strikes on Iranian military targets and Iranian missile and drone attacks on Gulf states leave commercial passage contested and unsafe.
A reported Ukrainian drone strike on an empty tanker entering the Azov-Black Sea Canal on July 12 shows that pressure on the maritime route serving Russian-held Crimea is continuing, although the scale and operational effect of earlier vessel strikes remain disputed.
US Central Command says it struck about 140 targets in Iran on 12 July after a Cyprus-flagged container ship was damaged in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian attacks extended toward several Gulf states hosting US forces.
US forces have renewed strikes on Iranian military targets after a container ship was attacked in or near the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran says the waterway is closed and attacks have spread to US-linked facilities across Gulf states.
Successive Russian missile and drone attacks on July 11–12 killed at least eight people in later reporting and wounded dozens across Ukraine, increasing Kyiv’s immediate demand for faster delivery of air-defence systems and interceptor missiles.
As of 11 July 2026, Japan and the EU were considering additional measures against the shipping network used for Russian oil exports after recent Ukrainian strikes on tankers tied to fuel supply routes serving occupied Crimea, but no new decision had been confirmed.
