The situation
Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 43.8% of the vote and 39 of 83 seats in Saxony-Anhalt’s Landtag election on September 6, becoming the largest parliamentary force but falling short of the 42 seats needed for a majority. It has not previously led a German state government.
Government formation is now unresolved. AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund has said he will seek support from other parties and individual lawmakers, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz on September 7 again ruled out CDU cooperation with AfD. A non-AfD majority would require an unusually broad arrangement among the other represented parties; BSW, which won 5.3%, may be relevant, but no agreement has been concluded.
Why it matters
The result places Germany’s mainstream-party refusal to cooperate with AfD under its strongest state-level pressure to date. The immediate test is whether that position can hold while producing a workable majority in Saxony-Anhalt, rather than whether AfD has already taken control of the state government.
The outcome weakens the CDU’s position in the state and creates a high-profile test of coalition discipline for Germany’s established parties. It does not itself alter federal policy or Germany’s external commitments, including its role in European support for Ukraine.
What changed
AfD moved from second place in Saxony-Anhalt’s 2021 election to first place in 2026, but its 39 seats leave government formation dependent on support beyond the party.
The assessment
Current judgement
AfD’s electoral breakthrough has created a government-formation test, not yet an AfD-led state government.
Key assumption
The assessment depends on the CDU maintaining its stated refusal to cooperate with AfD during coalition and parliamentary negotiations.
Impacts
Political Stability
AfD’s 39 seats make it the largest force in the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag, but leave the state without a settled governing majority. The main exposure is to prolonged and politically difficult coalition bargaining among the other parties.
Diplomacy
The election increases scrutiny of mainstream-party cohesion in Germany, a central European Union actor, but no change to federal foreign policy or external commitments has been established.
Full edition assessment · Political Stability
Political stability is more volatile in parts of Europe as government formation remains unresolved after Alternative for Germany became the largest party in Saxony-Anhalt without a majority, while Serbia moves toward an early parliamentary election that still requires a presidential decree. Both cases create near-term uncertainty over domestic political arrangements rather than evidenced shifts in national external policy.
The pressure is country- and state-specific, not a broad European governance crisis. In Saxony-Anhalt, coalition arithmetic and mainstream-party discipline are the immediate test; in Serbia, the legal election call and subsequent campaign will determine whether current political tensions move into a formal electoral contest.
Moderate confidence · Volatile · Volatile
Saxony-Anhalt coalition bargaining tests party discipline
Alternative for Germany won 39 of 83 seats, three short of a majority, while the CDU has again ruled out cooperation, leaving a non-AfD governing arrangement dependent on difficult bargaining.
The state faces the immediate prospect of prolonged government-formation negotiations and uncertain parliamentary control rather than an established change of government.
Signal to watchA written coalition or parliamentary agreement commanding at least 42 seats would resolve the immediate governing uncertainty.
Serbia’s election timetable awaits formal activation
Serbia’s government has initiated the procedural step toward an early parliamentary election, but parliament has not been dissolved and a polling date has not been formally set.
Anti-government political tensions are likely to be channelled into an election process if the decree is issued, while delay would prolong uncertainty over the timetable.
Signal to watchPublication of a presidential decree dissolving the National Assembly and simultaneously calling the election would formally activate the statutory timetable.
What to watch
Will Saxony-Anhalt produce a non-AfD governing majority or allow AfD to take the minister-presidency?
Horizon: Next several weeks
- Most Likely
Broad non-AfD arrangement forms
The other represented parties assemble a coalition or parliamentary arrangement that keeps AfD out of the state government.
Indicator: A written coalition, confidence-and-supply, or comparable agreement with at least 42 seats.
- Plausible
Government formation remains deadlocked
The parties fail to settle durable governing terms, extending negotiations and uncertainty over legislative control.
Indicator: Repeated unsuccessful talks or an inconclusive minister-president vote without a governing agreement.
- Least Likely
AfD gains a route to the minister-presidency
AfD obtains sufficient external or individual-law-maker support to elect its candidate despite the CDU’s stated refusal to cooperate.
Indicator: Public commitments sufficient to bring an AfD-backed candidate to 42 votes.
Evidence basis
AfD is the largest party but lacks a majority, while the CDU has publicly ruled out cooperation and no alternative governing agreement has been concluded.
What would change the outlook
A formal reversal of the CDU’s refusal to cooperate with AfD.
- Do the non-AfD parties formally agree on a coalition or parliamentary arrangement capable of commanding at least 42 seats?
- Does AfD secure declared support from another party or enough individual lawmakers to elect Ulrich Siegmund as minister-president?
Evidence and uncertainty
Moderate confidence. Moderate confidence. 4 retained references from 3 reporting origins (Reuters, Associated Press, The Federal Returning Officer). Claim-level independent corroboration has not been established. Confidence concerns the evidence for the reported development, not the probability of an outlook.
Useful context
AfD
Alternative for Germany, a German political party that won the most votes in the Saxony-Anhalt election.
Its result and ability to secure governing support are central to the state-government formation process.
BSW
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht, a German political party that won 5.3% in the election.
Its parliamentary position could affect the arithmetic for electing a minister-president or forming a government.
Landtag
The elected state parliament in a German federal state.
Saxony-Anhalt’s 83-seat Landtag elects the state’s minister-president and determines governing majorities.
Geographic context
- 01Magdeburg, Germany (city)
- 02Berlin, Germany (city)