The situation
The reported bill remains under consideration in the National Assembly and has not been shown to have passed, triggered a referendum or changed the constitution. It could permit amendment of provisions otherwise protected from revision, including those barring changes to presidential term limits, in the event of a “major dysfunction” paralysing state institutions; a referendum could be part of that process.
President Félix Tshisekedi, in office since 2019, is due to complete his second five-year term in 2028. The C64 opposition coalition says the proposal could facilitate a third term and organised demonstrations in Kinshasa, Lubumbashi and Kindu on September 15. Police dispersed the Kinshasa protest with tear gas and warning shots after clashes with pro-government supporters; restrictions linked to an Ebola outbreak also constrained mass gatherings.
Why it matters
The proposal raises the prospect of a legal pathway to revisit a constitutional safeguard central to succession politics before the 2028 presidential transition. Its practical significance depends on the bill’s final wording, whether it advances through the legislature and whether any referendum mechanism is initiated.
The police response to opposition mobilisation points to an immediate risk of further political confrontation if the measure proceeds. The available evidence does not establish that term limits have been removed, that a referendum has been scheduled or that a third term has been authorised.
What changed
The focus has shifted from the September 15 protest dispersal to the National Assembly bill that prompted the opposition mobilisation.
The assessment
Current judgement
The legislative proposal is the principal political-stability risk; the reported constitutional route remains unimplemented and unresolved.
What could challenge this assessment
No primary parliamentary text or legislative timetable is available, limiting certainty over the bill’s scope and prospects.
Impacts
Political Stability
A bill that could create an exception to protected constitutional provisions has intensified opposition scrutiny of the 2028 succession framework, while the September 15 protest dispersal shows immediate friction around the proposal.
Military & Security
Police use of tear gas and warning shots in Kinshasa after clashes between protesters and pro-government supporters indicates a risk of further security deployments if demonstrations continue.
What to watch
- Does the National Assembly formally advance, amend or reject the bill, and does its final text retain the proposed “major dysfunction” exception?
- Do authorities permit or disperse further C64 demonstrations, and is there verified escalation beyond the September 15 clashes in Kinshasa?
Evidence and uncertainty
Low confidence. Low confidence. 1 retained references from 1 reporting origins (Associated Press). Claim-level independent corroboration has not been established. Confidence concerns the evidence for the reported development, not the probability of an outlook.
Useful context
C64
An opposition coalition in the Democratic Republic of the Congo that organised demonstrations against the reported bill.
Its mobilisation prompted the September 15 protests and police response.
Geographic context
- 01Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (city)
- 02Lubumbashi, Democratic Republic of the Congo (city)
- 03Kindu, Democratic Republic of the Congo (city)