The situation
Morocco’s Interior Ministry has placed the Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM) first in preliminary results from the September 23 legislative election, with 97 seats in the 395-member House of Representatives. The National Rally of Independents (RNI) won 66 seats and Istiqlal 65; nationwide turnout was 38.08% in the ministry’s result-stage tally.
PAM’s result is a plurality rather than the 198 seats needed for an outright majority. Counting committees chaired by magistrates are to proclaim results and elected candidates from official polling records; formal validation, any applicable challenges and the process of forming a government remain outstanding.
Why it matters
The vote shifts Morocco into a government-formation phase without a single-party parliamentary majority. PAM’s ability to convert its lead into governing authority will depend on the formalisation of results and its ability to secure parliamentary backing.
Until those steps are completed, the composition and policy direction of the next government remain unsettled. This leaves the near-term political balance, including the parliamentary basis for domestic economic policy and external engagement, contingent on coalition arrangements.
What changed
The electoral process has moved from campaigning and voting to preliminary seat results, with PAM now the leading party but no governing majority established.
The assessment
Current judgement
PAM has secured the leading position in the preliminary tally, but Morocco’s governing outcome will be decided by validation and parliamentary bargaining rather than the initial seat count alone.
What could challenge this assessment
The announced seat totals remain preliminary, so formal proclamation or any applicable review could still alter the parliamentary starting point for government formation.
Impacts
Political Stability
PAM’s preliminary plurality changes the parliamentary balance, but its 97 seats fall well short of a majority, making formal validation and coalition arrangements decisive to the next government’s stability.
Diplomacy
Morocco’s external policy continuity will depend on the government that emerges after validation and coalition negotiations; the preliminary tally alone does not establish its composition or direction.
Economic Pressure
The formation process will determine the parliamentary basis for the next government’s domestic economic agenda, while the preliminary result itself does not establish a policy mandate.
What to watch
- Do the formally proclaimed results preserve PAM’s 97-seat lead and the reported distribution among the three largest parties?
- Which parties, if any, formally commit enough parliamentary support to establish a governing majority or durable governing arrangement?
Evidence and uncertainty
Moderate confidence. Moderate confidence. 3 retained references from 2 reporting origins (Government of Morocco, Reuters). Claim-level independent corroboration has not been established. Confidence concerns the evidence for the reported development, not the probability of an outlook.
Useful context
Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM)
A Moroccan political party that led the Interior Ministry’s preliminary seat tally.
Its 97-seat preliminary result makes it the starting point for the government-formation process.
National Rally of Independents (RNI)
A Moroccan political party that placed second in the preliminary tally with 66 seats.
Its parliamentary position may be consequential to coalition arrangements.
Istiqlal Party
A Moroccan political party that placed third in the preliminary tally with 65 seats.
Its seats may be consequential to coalition arrangements.
Geographic context
- 01Rabat, Morocco (city)