The situation
Fighting between Ethiopian federal forces and Tigrayan fighters resumed around 22-23 September and has spread across Tigray and nearby areas. On 23 September, the United Nations reported that airports in Mekelle, Axum and Shire had been seized and occupied, alongside intensified fighting in and around Tigray.
On 28 September, Ethiopian National Defense Force chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula alleged that Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt were supporting Tigrayan and allied forces. The accused states denied the allegations, and the available evidence does not independently substantiate external backing.
Why it matters
The renewed hostilities represent a major breakdown of the framework that ended the 2020-2022 Tigray war. Control of airports and fighting across multiple northern fronts raise immediate risks to civilian movement, humanitarian access and internal security in Ethiopia.
The Ethiopian military's allegations also increase diplomatic pressure in the Horn of Africa, but they do not establish a confirmed cross-border intervention or interstate conflict. Their significance will depend on whether evidence of external involvement emerges or whether the accusations trigger further state action.
What changed
Hostilities have shifted from political-security deterioration to renewed fighting across northern fronts, while the reported seizure or occupation of Tigray airports has created an immediate operational consequence.
The assessment
Current judgement
The Pretoria peace framework is no longer functioning as an effective restraint on conflict in northern Ethiopia.
What could challenge this assessment
Available evidence confirms renewed fighting and airport seizures or occupation, but does not establish the scale of any interruption to humanitarian access or civilian movement.
Impacts
Military & Security
Renewed clashes and the reported seizure or occupation of airports in Mekelle, Axum and Shire show that fighting has expanded beyond a contained political dispute and is eroding the security framework established in 2022.
Political Stability
The collapse of effective restraint under the Pretoria framework increases pressure on Ethiopia's federal authorities and raises the risk of further instability across northern regions.
Diplomacy
Ethiopia's unverified allegations against Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt have raised regional tensions, although the available evidence does not confirm foreign intervention.
Humanitarian Pressure
Fighting across Tigray and nearby areas, together with control of key airports, may constrain civilian movement and aid operations; no new quantified access disruption is established in the evidence.
Full edition assessment · Diplomacy
Diplomatic pressure is elevated and volatile because Qatar’s indirect contacts have not produced an agreed framework for ending fighting and restoring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States rejected Iran’s conditional proposal, leaving sanctions relief, maritime access, a ceasefire involving Lebanon and nuclear talks bundled into unresolved terms.
Regional diplomatic risk is also rising around northern Ethiopia, where Addis Ababa’s military leadership has alleged external backing for Tigrayan forces. Those allegations were denied and remain unsubstantiated in the available evidence, so they raise tension but do not establish interstate intervention.
Moderate confidence · Volatile · Volatile
Mediation has not yet translated into maritime access
Qatari contacts continue, but the parties have not agreed workable conditions for restoring predictable transit, leaving diplomacy exposed to further bargaining failure.
Commercial passage and energy-market confidence remain dependent on unverified negotiations rather than an operationally confirmed arrangement.
Signal to watchA jointly acknowledged agreement specifying passage arrangements would show whether mediation has moved from contact to implementation.
Unverified external-support claims heighten Horn tensions
Ethiopian military allegations against Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt add regional diplomatic pressure while denials and the lack of independent corroboration limit conclusions about outside involvement.
The immediate exposure is to further deterioration in interstate relations rather than a confirmed expansion of the conflict across borders.
Signal to watchCorroborated evidence of cross-border military support or a formal response by an accused government would materially change the regional risk assessment.
Full edition assessment · Military & Security
Military and security conditions are worsening through three direct drivers: attacks on commercial shipping amid the unresolved Strait of Hormuz dispute; renewed federal–Tigrayan fighting that has undermined Ethiopia’s 2022 cessation framework; and Russia’s nationwide drone attack on Ukraine on 28 September. The latter two conflicts impose immediate operational burdens on air defence, civilian protection and territorial security.
Pressure is severe but geographically concentrated rather than a single global military escalation. Taiwan’s reported PLA activity sustains routine operational demands on Taiwan’s forces, but the available official report does not show a new exercise, blockade measure or broader change in force posture.
Moderate confidence · Worsening · Rising
Maritime-security risk constrains passage
Attacks on commercial vessels and the lack of a verified reopening mechanism keep shipping exposed to further incidents in the Strait of Hormuz.
Commercial crews, vessels and escort or surveillance assets operating around the strait face the most immediate security exposure.
Signal to watchA further verified attack on a commercial vessel or a sustained security-backed transit arrangement would determine whether risk is escalating or being contained.
Northern Ethiopian conflict has regained operational momentum
Renewed fighting and the reported seizure or occupation of airports in Mekelle, Axum and Shire demonstrate that the 2022 framework is no longer containing armed confrontation.
Control of northern transport nodes and the security of communities in affected areas are immediately exposed to continued or widening fighting.
Signal to watchVerified changes in control of the named airports or expansion of fighting into additional northern areas would indicate the conflict’s next operational direction.
Long-range drone attacks sustain air-defence attrition
Russia’s reported deployment of more than 120 drones across Ukraine requires continued interception, alert and emergency-response activity across multiple regions.
Ukraine’s air-defence capacity and urban civil-protection systems remain the most directly stressed assets, especially where damage assessment and rescue work are ongoing.
Signal to watchSubsequent verified strike volumes and Ukraine’s reported interception performance will show whether the operational burden is being sustained or intensifying.
Full edition assessment · Political Stability
Political stability is worsening most clearly in Ethiopia, where renewed conflict has rendered the 2022 Pretoria framework ineffective as a restraint and raises pressure on federal authority across the north. In Ukraine, continued nationwide air strikes sustain pressure on civilian administration and emergency services, though the supplied evidence does not show a change in national political control.
Serbia’s interim presidency and parallel election timetable add domestic uncertainty, but the constitutional succession process is functioning and the evidence does not establish an immediate policy rupture. The United States’ targeted visa restrictions may intensify political contestation in Bolivia, yet their regional effect remains limited and uncertain.
Moderate confidence · Volatile · Volatile
Conflict erodes federal conflict-management capacity
The return of fighting across northern Ethiopia shifts pressure from managing an imperfect peace arrangement to containing an active conflict with contested regional implications.
Ethiopian federal authorities and communities in northern regions are exposed to further instability if fighting expands or key transport nodes remain contested.
Signal to watchVerified territorial changes, additional armed fronts or a renewed negotiated cessation effort would clarify whether instability is deepening or being contained.
Compressed electoral timetable tests institutional continuity
Aleksandar Vučić’s resignation has placed Ana Brnabić in an interim presidency while Serbia must organize a presidential election alongside the scheduled parliamentary contest.
Political competition and government-formation uncertainty are concentrated in Serbia’s coming electoral period, while constitutional succession provides a continuity mechanism.
Signal to watchThe formal calling of the presidential election and the outcome of the 25 October parliamentary vote will determine whether the transition remains orderly.
What to watch
- Do fighting and reported control of airports in Mekelle, Axum and Shire persist or expand into additional areas of northern Ethiopia?
- Do Ethiopian authorities or independent international bodies produce corroborated evidence of external military support to Tigrayan or allied forces?
Evidence and uncertainty
Moderate confidence. Moderate confidence. 4 retained references from 2 reporting origins (Associated Press, United Nations in Ethiopia). Claim-level independent corroboration has not been established. Confidence concerns the evidence for the reported development, not the probability of an outlook.
Useful context
Pretoria cessation-of-hostilities agreement
The November 2022 agreement between Ethiopia's federal government and Tigrayan forces intended to end the 2020-2022 war.
Renewed fighting has materially undermined the agreement's role as the main conflict-management framework.
Tigray
A northern Ethiopian regional state and the principal theatre of the 2020-2022 war.
The renewed fighting and reported airport seizures are centred in and around Tigray.
Geographic context
- 01Tigray, Ethiopia (region)
- 02Mekelle, Ethiopia (city)
- 03Addis Ababa, Ethiopia (city)