The situation
A senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad official said Hamas and Islamic Jihad have agreed to support a unified national list, potentially led by independents rather than formal faction members. A spokesperson for Mohammed Dahlan’s Reformist Democratic Faction separately confirmed work toward a cross-faction list but did not describe it as a formal alliance. Islamic Jihad says it would support the list rather than field candidates itself.
The prospective arrangement would create an electoral vehicle combining Hamas and Islamic Jihad support with a faction led by Dahlan, a former Fatah security chief. It follows an August meeting in Cairo between Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya and Dahlan. President Mahmoud Abbas has announced parliamentary elections in Gaza and the West Bank for November 28, 2026, but no candidate list or registration has been confirmed and a previous Palestinian election process was postponed in 2021.
Why it matters
If voting proceeds, the initiative could consolidate opponents of Abbas’s Fatah movement behind a shared list and reshape competition within Palestinian politics. It also links Islamist factions with a former Fatah insider, potentially complicating Fatah’s position in both Gaza and the West Bank.
Its immediate significance is limited by unresolved implementation conditions: the arrangement is not a confirmed governing pact or registered slate, and the announced election timetable remains exposed to the security and governance constraints that have disrupted previous electoral plans.
What changed
On September 29, an Islamic Jihad leader and a spokesperson for Dahlan’s faction confirmed work toward a unified national list, while leaving its formal status, composition and registration unresolved.
Impacts
Political Stability
The reported coordination could sharpen competition with Fatah if elections proceed, but the absence of a formal alliance, registered slate or assured election process keeps the political effect uncertain.
Diplomacy
The Cairo contacts behind the initiative show Egyptian-linked political engagement remains relevant to Palestinian factional realignment, although no broader mediation outcome is established.
Military & Security
Security and governance conditions in Gaza and the West Bank remain a practical constraint on whether the planned electoral process can be implemented.
Full edition assessment · Political Stability
Political stability pressures are concentrated in Iraq and the Palestinian territories. Iraq’s coalition transition is politically salient for federal authorities, Kurdish actors and armed groups, but the public record does not yet establish a changed balance of security control. In the Palestinian territories, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Mohammed Dahlan’s faction are working toward a joint electoral list for a planned November vote, potentially sharpening competition with Fatah if the process proceeds.
Neither case supports a conclusion of imminent political rupture. The Palestinian initiative is not yet a formal alliance or registered list, and the election itself is uncertain; in Iraq, the political consequences will depend on the operational content of successor security arrangements.
Low confidence · Volatile · Volatile
Iraq’s security transition may sharpen internal contestation
The end of the coalition mission’s Iraq phase is politically consequential for Baghdad, Kurdish actors and Iran-aligned armed groups because the practical terms of the successor relationship remain unclear.
The Kurdistan Region and federal authorities are most exposed to uncertainty over future security assurances and coordination arrangements.
Signal to watchPublic confirmation of post-transition U.S.-Iraq arrangements and verified reactions from Iraqi political and armed actors would show whether the transition is stabilising or becoming more contested.
Palestinian electoral competition may be reconfigured
Reported coordination among Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Dahlan’s faction could consolidate support behind a shared list, but its composition, legal status and the feasibility of the scheduled vote remain unresolved.
Fatah’s electoral position in Gaza and the West Bank would be the direct political exposure if a credible cross-faction slate is registered and voting proceeds.
Signal to watchPublication or registration of a named joint candidate list alongside a verifiable election timetable would demonstrate whether the initiative has moved beyond exploratory coordination.
What to watch
- Do Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Dahlan’s faction publish or register a named electoral list with agreed candidates and rules for participation?
- Do Palestinian authorities establish and maintain a verifiable process for holding parliamentary voting in both Gaza and the West Bank on November 28, 2026?
Evidence and uncertainty
Low confidence. Low confidence. 1 retained references from 1 reporting origins (Associated Press). Claim-level independent corroboration has not been established. Confidence concerns the evidence for the reported development, not the probability of an outlook.
Useful context
Palestinian Islamic Jihad
A Palestinian Islamist movement that says it will support rather than directly contest the proposed national list.
Its backing is central to the reported cross-faction electoral arrangement.
Reformist Democratic Faction
A faction led by former Fatah official Mohammed Dahlan.
It is the Dahlan-aligned participant in the reported effort to assemble a joint list.
Mohammed Dahlan
A former Fatah security chief who has lived outside the Palestinian territories since his rupture with Mahmoud Abbas in 2010.
His faction is working with Hamas and Islamic Jihad toward the prospective list.
Geographic context
- 01Gaza, Palestine (city)
- 02Ramallah, Palestine (city)
- 03Cairo, Egypt (city)