Key assessment
The threat links trade policy to Mexico’s handling of migration, creating leverage without yet changing an identified tariff rate. Its practical effect depends on whether Washington translates the demand into a formal measure and how it defines compliance.
Sheinbaum’s account challenges the premise that caravans are reaching the northern border, but the evidence does not independently establish the movements of every group. The absence of a specified tariff scope or implementation date also limits assessment of the potential trade impact.
What happened
On 12 November, Trump threatened to double tariffs on Mexico unless it stopped migrant caravans travelling north. An estimated 1,500 migrants had set out north from Tapachula, in southern Mexico, on 10 November.
Sheinbaum said on 12 November that no migrant caravan had reached Mexico’s northern border since January 2025. She said a caravan of about 600 people in Chiapas had largely dispersed and that Mexican authorities were encouraging another group of several hundred Honduran migrants to return home.
On 12 November 2026, Sheinbaum ruled out using force to break up migrant caravans.
Why it matters
The threat leaves businesses trading across the US-Mexico border facing the possibility of higher tariffs, although no new tariff action or product scope is established in the evidence. Migrants travelling through southern Mexico also face uncertainty about how authorities will respond to groups moving north.
What to watch
Key questions
- Will the United States issue a formal tariff measure specifying affected goods, rates and an effective date?
- Will independently verified reporting show migrant caravans reaching Mexico’s northern border?
Implications
Trade & Supply Chains
The threatened tariff increase creates potential cost exposure for US-Mexico trade, but affected products and any implementation date remain unspecified.
Diplomacy
Trump’s demand and Sheinbaum’s account of caravan movements expose a disagreement over Mexico’s handling of northbound migration.
Economic Pressure
The United States has threatened to use higher tariffs to press Mexico to stop migrant caravans, without an established new tariff action.