Dated GeoSignal briefings on Jordan. Read developments, assessment and source references in their original context. Country tags reflect published metadata and may not include every actor or place mentioned.
The U.S.-led coalition has completed its departure from Erbil Air Base, formally ending Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq while retaining a Jordan-based task force for counter-ISIS operations in Syria.
U.S. Central Command said on September 30 that it had completed the withdrawal of personnel and equipment from Erbil Air Base, ending Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq and shifting future security cooperation to a bilateral U.S.-Iraq framework.
France, Jordan and Lebanon have begun coordinating support for the Lebanese Armed Forces ahead of UNIFIL’s scheduled end of operations on 31 December 2026, without agreeing a successor force, funding package or final mandate.
Reciprocal U.S.-Iran tanker and shipping attacks have deepened disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, where reported oil flows remain far below pre-war levels and Brent is holding above $100 a barrel.
Jordan says it intercepted 18 of 20 Iranian ballistic missiles fired toward its territory on September 9 after US strikes on Iranian oil carriers, while Iran's claimed attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz remain unverified.
US forces completed strikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets on September 1, and Iran's subsequent missile and drone launches prompted reported interceptions in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain.
Iran says it will reciprocate under the lapsed June memorandum if the United States restores its commitments, but there is no evidence the framework or normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has been restored.
A tanker outbound from the Strait of Hormuz was reported hit by three projectiles east of Khasab, Oman, on August 31, following renewed U.S.-Iran military exchanges and regional air-defence interceptions.
The United Arab Emirates said on 31 August that it intercepted a drone it attributed to Iran over its territorial waters, extending the active U.S.-Iran military exchange into a Gulf state’s immediate security environment.
A U.S. strike on two Iranian launchers on Larak Island on August 30 resumed direct U.S.-Iran military exchanges, followed by reported Iranian attacks across the region whose effects remain only partly established.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a contested, reduced-traffic operating environment after US forces struck Iranian launchers on Larak Island on 30 August and Iran reported missile retaliation toward US sites in Jordan.
Jordan confirmed on August 24 that Syrian and Israeli officials met the previous day to revive a security channel disrupted after Israeli strikes on Syrian territory, but no ceasefire, withdrawal plan or security agreement was announced.
Syria and Israel resumed a US-mediated security channel in Jordan on August 23, seeking to halt Israeli military actions in Syria and revive negotiations, but no ceasefire, withdrawal arrangement or security deal has been confirmed.
US Central Command says it completed more than two hours of strikes on dozens of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in Iran, while Jordan reports intercepting five Iranian missiles without casualties.
Saudi Arabia’s July 29 participation in US strikes on Iran-backed militia sites in Iraq marks a new direct regional role, while subsequent US-Iran exchanges and inactive diplomacy keep the escalation cycle open.
U.S. and Saudi aircraft struck militia logistics and weapons sites in eastern Iraq on July 28 after U.S. forces intercepted Iranian missiles, while Jordan reported destroying five missiles launched from Iran on July 29.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres’s 25 July visit to Damascus reinforced UN support for a Syrian-led political transition and recovery, but did not produce new funding, sanctions or reconstruction commitments.