Dated GeoSignal briefings on Sudan. Read developments, assessment and source references in their original context. Country tags reflect published metadata and may not include every actor or place mentioned.
As of 1 July 2026, UN reporting indicated that significantly increased drone attacks and expanded Rapid Support Forces presence around El Obeid had narrowed the window to avert a wider battle that could endanger about 500,000 civilians.
By 30 June, international warnings had intensified that RSF pressure on El Obeid, including repeated strikes, shortages and constrained access, was creating an imminent risk of large-scale violence against civilians.
As of 26 June, the UN Security Council’s 20 June warning of an imminent mass-atrocity risk around El Obeid remained the clearest current signal, with subsequent drone-linked damage to power and fuel infrastructure showing the city was still under escalating pressure rather than under confirmed assault or capture.
Newly issued Sudanese pound notes were reported circulating in Rapid Support Forces-held territory on 25 June, extending a government-led wartime currency replacement beyond state-controlled areas and reinforcing Sudan’s parallel financial fragmentation.
By 25 June 2026, international warnings remained focused on an imminent RSF offensive risk in El Obeid after reported drone strikes on civilian infrastructure disrupted electricity, water access and some medical services.
As of 24 June 2026, official warnings had hardened around an imminent RSF offensive on El Obeid, with drone attacks and strikes on civilian infrastructure already disrupting services in the army-held city.