Edition · 23 September 2026 · 07:00 BST

The immediate issue is unresolved bargaining over operational access, not a confirmed reopening of the Strait.

The assessment depends on the absence, as of 23 September, of an undisclosed agreement that is already governing maritime passage.

Last material update: 23 September 2026

Evidence threshold

Do the United States and Iran publicly confirm common terms on passage, Iranian port access, maritime security and verification?

Published timeline

• 9 July 2026 · US declared its interim ceasefire with Iran over and resumed strikes after Strait of Hormuz shipping attacks The central change by 9 July was that the ceasefire's collapse became the operative reality. Earlier strain from shipping attacks, reciprocal regional exchanges, and the 7 July revocation of the prior oil authorization had already raised pressure, but Washington then publicly treated the truce as over and resumed strikes, while the sanctions and maritime consequences remained in force.
• 12 July 2026 · Iran declares the Strait of Hormuz closed Iran declared the strait closed after a vessel incident as US strikes continued and Iranian attacks expanded to Gulf states. The practical status of passage remained disputed.
• 20 July 2026 · Houthis declared restrictions on Saudi-linked shipping The Houthis warned Saudi-linked vessels against transiting Bab el-Mandeb and using Saudi ports.
• 23 July 2026 · Saudi-flagged tanker caught fire after an attack Saudi authorities confirmed a fire aboard Encelia after an attack in the Red Sea; all crew were reported safe.
• 29 July 2026 · Saudi Arabia joined US strikes in Iraq Saudi Arabia participated in US strikes on logistics and weapons sites used by Iraq-based Iran-backed militias.
• 1 August 2026 · Russian missile-and-drone attack struck Kyiv Ukrainian authorities reported civilian deaths and injuries after the attack, which also damaged Lithuania’s embassy.
• 4 August 2026 · Commercial vessel reported damage near Oman A cargo vessel reported damage after an unidentified projectile strike near Khasab, underscoring that safe transit had not been restored.
• 4 August 2026 · Cargo vessel reported struck near the strait A cargo vessel reported an unidentified projectile strike near the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz; attribution and operational effects were not disclosed.
• 11 August 2026 · Houthi strike killed six aboard a commercial vessel Yemeni authorities said Houthi forces fired missiles at a Yemeni vessel near Mokha, killing six and injuring at least nine.
• 11 August 2026 · Missile strike made the declared threat lethal Yemeni authorities said Houthi missiles struck a commercial vessel near Mokha, killing six people and injuring at least nine.
• 12 August 2026 · Ukraine reported a strike on Novorossiysk naval and port infrastructure Ukraine said it targeted air-defence systems, piers and other infrastructure at the Russian Black Sea hub.
• 13 August 2026 · Two ADNOC tankers were attacked during transit Attacks on two ADNOC tankers underscored the continuing security risk around passage; responsibility was not independently established.
• 13 August 2026 · Two UAE-operated tankers reportedly sustained minor damage UK Maritime Trade Operations reported minor damage after reported drone attacks; the UAE attributed responsibility to Iran, which remained unverified.
• 14 August 2026 · A further ADNOC-linked tanker incident was reported The UAE said an ADNOC-owned tanker was attacked while transiting the strait; it attributed responsibility to Iran, which was not independently established.
• 14 August 2026 · US-Iran standoff keeps Strait of Hormuz shipping severely restricted The 13 August attacks on two ADNOC tankers added a new confirmed security incident to an already constrained shipping environment, while no reopening agreement had emerged by 15 August.
• 19 August 2026 · Projectile damaged a ship near Oman A UK maritime-security report said a projectile damaged an engine room and caused a crew casualty; responsibility was unknown.
• 25 August 2026 · Tanker was struck near the Strait of Hormuz A tanker was hit by an unidentified projectile; the fire was extinguished and the crew was reported safe.
• 27 August 2026 · Russia launched a large air attack across Ukraine Ukraine reported strikes affecting multiple regions and infrastructure linked to ports, grain, energy, industry and distribution.
• 30 August 2026 · U.S. forces struck launch preparations on or near Larak Island The United States said it targeted Iranian launch preparations, resuming direct exchanges after a reported month-long lull.
• 31 August 2026 · Jordan reported intercepting missiles after Iran’s retaliation claim Iran said it launched ballistic missiles toward US bases in Jordan, while Jordan’s armed forces said it intercepted eight missiles entering its airspace.
• 31 August 2026 · Jordan and the UAE reported air-defence interceptions Jordan confirmed intercepting missiles in its airspace, while the UAE reported intercepting an Iranian drone over territorial waters.
• 1 September 2026 · U.S. strikes targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard sites U.S. Central Command said it struck Iranian air-defence, radar, maritime, mine-laying and communications targets.
• 1 September 2026 · Fresh Iranian crude exports remained constrained Commercial tracking cited in reporting indicated no successful fresh crude transits to China through Hormuz since enforcement resumed.
• 2 September 2026 · Iranian retaliation prompted regional defensive responses Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan reported attacks or defensive responses following Iranian missile and drone launches.
• 2 September 2026 · Russian attacks hit Kyiv, Odesa region and Dnipro Ukrainian authorities reported damage to power facilities, urban disruption and civilian casualties.
• 3 September 2026 · US-Iran exchange heightens Hormuz transit risk CENTCOM's September 1 strikes were followed by reported Iranian attacks on U.S. regional positions and Gulf states, ending a reported lull in direct exchanges and widening the immediate security exposure around Hormuz.
• 4 September 2026 · Hormuz commercial traffic remained low Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained low as renewed hostilities raised risk to maritime energy trade.
• 4 September 2026 · Russian drone reportedly struck Ukraine’s Security Service headquarters The reported Kyiv strike demonstrated continued Russian capacity to target a central Ukrainian security institution; damage and operational effects were not established.
• 7 September 2026 · Visible commodity traffic fell to none on Sunday Reported data recorded no commodity-vessel transits on Sunday after five on Saturday, compared with 31 over the preceding weekend.
• 8 September 2026 · Russia resumed nationwide missile and drone strikes Ukraine reported a nationwide Russian drone-and-missile attack, including against Kyiv, after the diplomatic contacts.
• 9 September 2026 · Reported maritime attacks widened commercial exposure Iranian authorities reported attacks on commercial shipping near Hormuz as traffic through the strait became sharply restricted.
• 9 September 2026 · Iran claimed attacks on ships near Hormuz Iran said it attacked 10 ships near the strait; the claim was not independently verified in the supplied evidence.
• 10 September 2026 · Drone damage disrupted Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline A reported drone attack damaged a major pumping facility on the route to Red Sea export facilities.
• 11 September 2026 · Houthi forces reportedly captured Mayun Island Officials cited in reporting said the advance extended to Mayun Island near Bab el-Mandeb.
• 13 September 2026 · Oman postponed regional Hormuz talks Regional talks on reopening the strait were postponed, leaving no confirmed access arrangement.
• 17 September 2026 · Cross-border drone threat remained active Saudi civil defence said debris from an intercepted drone caused casualties in Taif province.

The initiative raises the political profile of EU coordination on hybrid threats but remains a preliminary proposal rather than a change in EU security governance.

Its practical significance depends on member states accepting common activation and response rules.

Last material update: 17 September 2026

Evidence threshold

Does the Commission publish a legal or policy text defining the protocol's trigger threshold, consultation process and available response measures?

Published timeline

• 8 July 2026 · NATO’s Ankara declaration framed more than $50 billion in alliance capability launches, with some programmes still at negotiation stage The story shifted from a procurement-announcement list to an alliance-level implementation story after NATO issued the Ankara Summit Declaration on 8 July 2026. The key clarification is that not all announced items were finalised contracts: at least the GlobalEye programme remained at negotiation stage.
• 8 July 2026 · NATO set Ukraine-support baseline through 2027 At the Ankara summit, Allies pledged at least €70 billion in military equipment, assistance and training for Ukraine in 2026, with at least the same level intended for 2027.
• 8 July 2026 · NATO adopted Ankara declaration with €70 billion Ukraine pledge for 2026 and new alliance procurement commitments On 8 July 2026, NATO moved from pre-summit positioning and forum announcements to an adopted summit declaration that formally combined a €70 billion Ukraine support pledge for 2026, a stated intent to sustain at least equivalent support in 2027, and more than $50 billion in new procurements with wider industrial commitments.
• 8 July 2026 · NATO announced eastern fuel-logistics programme Allies announced €27 billion to modernise fuel storage and distribution systems and support new facilities, including pipelines toward NATO's eastern area.
• 8 July 2026 · NATO moves to implement readiness and industrial measures after Ankara summit On 8 July, NATO formally approved the Readiness Action Plan and paired it with announced procurement, counter-uncrewed-system, fuel-logistics and Ukraine-support commitments. This shifts the focus from the 2025 Hague spending objective to implementation.
• 9 July 2026 · Reported Ukrainian strikes widened fuel-logistics pressure Further reported drone strikes hit Russian oil facilities and two tankers were reported ablaze in the Sea of Azov.
• 9 July 2026 · Russian authorities reported tanker fires Russian regional authorities said Ukrainian drones set two oil tankers on fire and that one crew was evacuated.
• 11 July 2026 · Russian strikes on Ukrainian regions continued Ukrainian officials reported six people killed and 29 wounded in Russian attacks, including four deaths in Sumy region from glide bombs.
• 11 July 2026 · Ukraine reported wider Sea of Azov vessel damage Ukraine’s General Staff said overnight attacks damaged 21 tankers carrying oil and petroleum products and other vessels. Russian officials acknowledged attacks on four ships and reported one death.
• 11 July 2026 · Competing accounts described attacks on Sea of Azov vessels Ukrainian authorities reported broader vessel damage, while Russian officials reported attacks on four vessels in Taganrog Bay and one fatality.
• 11 July 2026 · Russian strike wave expanded across Ukraine Russian forces launched missile, drone and glide-bomb attacks with reported impacts including Sumy, Odesa and Zaporizhzhia.
• 12 July 2026 · Reported casualties and delivery pressure increased Available reporting put the toll at at least eight dead and dozens wounded, while President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for faster fulfilment of weapons-supply agreements.
• 12 July 2026 · Tanker entering canal was reportedly struck Rostov regional authorities said a Ukrainian drone struck an empty tanker entering the Azov-Black Sea Canal; they said the resulting fire was contained, with no casualties or oil spill.
• 13 July 2026 · NATO allies set €70 billion Ukraine support baseline for 2026 The 13 July Paris meeting reaffirmed the 8 July NATO pledge and added implementation priorities around air defence, interceptor production and long-range capabilities; it did not create a new funding total.
• 13 July 2026 · NATO reaffirmed Ukraine-support commitment in Paris The Secretary General restated the Ankara commitment without announcing a replacement package or verified implementation milestone.
• 13 July 2026 · European missile-defence coalition launched Ukraine and nine European states announced a political framework for integrated ballistic-missile defence.
• 14 July 2026 · European partners align with EU measures against Russia-linked military and shadow-fleet actors Nine European partner countries and Ukraine joined the EU’s policy-alignment statement on 14 July; the underlying EU designations were not changed.
• 16 July 2026 · EU gold restrictions on Sudan take effect as UK targets alleged war-finance networks The operative EU restrictions entered into force on 15 July, followed by the UK’s separate sanctions package on 16 July.
• 16 July 2026 · Reciprocal attacks affected Black Sea vessels and Odesa-linked infrastructure Further attacks involving vessels and Russian strikes affecting the Greater Odesa area increased risk around maritime logistics and Ukrainian exports.
• 16 July 2026 · Black Sea maritime attacks disrupt shipping and grain handling By July 16, the contest had widened from earlier attacks into further reciprocal claims of vessel and port strikes, with reported disruption now affecting both Sea of Azov shipping and grain handling at Chornomorsk.
• 17 July 2026 · UK and EU enforce coordinated cyber sanctions on Russian-linked networks On 13 July, the UK and EU simultaneously used their cyber-sanctions regimes against overlapping Russian-linked cyber and hybrid networks.
• 18 July 2026 · Black Sea shipping faces renewed conflict risk after attacks on Ukrainian ports The July 17 attacks added new damage to foreign-flagged vessels and fresh casualties to a wider pattern of reciprocal attacks on maritime logistics and port infrastructure.
• 19 July 2026 · Strike halts oil loadings at Novorossiysk’s CPC terminal On July 19, CPC confirmed that a strike on two tankers at its Novorossiysk terminal had halted oil loadings, shifting the immediate focus from earlier attacks on Odesa-area ports to disruption at a Kazakhstan-linked export terminal.
• 23 July 2026 · EU adopted its 21st Russia sanctions package The Council expanded restrictions affecting Russian finance, energy-export support, crypto services, shadow-fleet vessels and dual-use supply networks.
• 23 July 2026 · EU agrees Russia sanctions package after LNG-transit compromise Political agreement on 23 July replaced the unresolved negotiating impasse reported on 22 July; the LNG-transit exemption was the reported compromise that enabled the package to proceed.
• 24 July 2026 · China’s controls on 14 EU entities took effect China required relevant dual-use transfers to the listed EU entities to cease unless an exceptional application is approved.
• 24 July 2026 · China restricted dual-use transfers to 14 EU entities China barred Chinese exports and third-country provision of China-origin dual-use items to the listed entities.
• 24 July 2026 · China restricts dual-use exports to 14 EU entities after new EU Russia sanctions China’s Ministry of Commerce applied immediate export controls to 14 EU entities on July 24, following the EU’s July 23 expansion of dual-use restrictions to 51 entities linked to Russia’s military-industrial base.
• 24 July 2026 · EU sanctions expansion triggers Chinese dual-use controls on 14 European entities China’s 24 July announcement converted the EU’s 23 July sanctions package into a direct EU-China dual-use trade-control confrontation affecting named European entities.
• 24 July 2026 · China’s dual-use controls on 14 EU entities remain in force China’s entity-specific export controls took effect on 24 July, one day after the EU adopted its 21st Russia-related sanctions package.
• 27 July 2026 · China’s targeted dual-use controls on 14 EU entities take effect China’s 24 July decision converted the EU’s Russia-related export-control action into an immediately effective, reciprocal Chinese restriction on 14 EU entities.
• 27 July 2026 · China announced dual-use export restrictions on EU entities Beijing said 14 EU entities were added to its export-control list in response to the EU’s Russia-related sanctions package.
• 30 July 2026 · China’s dual-use export curbs on 14 EU entities remain in force China’s 24 July action made the dispute operational: covered transactions already under way had to stop, and the restriction also applies to certain transfers of Chinese-origin dual-use items by foreign parties.
• 31 July 2026 · China’s dual-use export restrictions on 14 EU entities remain in force China’s export-control response is already operative, while the separate US Senate agreement announced on 28 July remains a legislative step rather than an implemented measure.
• 16 September 2026 · Commission president proposed hybrid-threat consultations Von der Leyen outlined a member-state-triggered process to coordinate responses to hostile activity below the threshold of armed aggression.
• 16 September 2026 · Von der Leyen proposes EU protocol for hybrid-security incidents Von der Leyen publicly proposed a member-state-triggered EU consultation mechanism on 16 September; the EU has not adopted the mechanism.

The proposal is a diplomatically material opening but remains far from an operational ceasefire.

Last material update: 23 September 2026

Evidence threshold

Does Russia publicly accept, reject or counter Ukraine’s reciprocal proposal with defined conditions for covered energy targets?

Published timeline

• 2 July 2026 · Russia carried out a mass missile-and-drone strike centred on Kyiv after citing Ukrainian attacks on oil facilities The main development on 2 July 2026 was the confirmed large-scale Russian overnight strike itself, not just later revisions to the casualty toll. Russia publicly framed the attack as retaliation for recent Ukrainian strikes on oil facilities, and Ukrainian reporting indicated that Kyiv was the main target of a very large mixed missile-and-drone salvo.
• 3 July 2026 · NATO’s 7-8 July Ankara summit remained a pending decision point on defence spending, industrial production and Ukraine support The new development on 3 July was not the summit’s existence but the combination of updated NATO programme details and reported draft declaration language pointing to a possible reaffirmation of collective defence and a quantified multi-year Ukraine assistance pledge, both still pending final approval.
• 3 July 2026 · NATO’s 7-8 July Ankara summit became the next formal decision point on Article 5, defence investment and Ukraine support On 3 July, NATO published the official summit page and media programme confirming the Ankara meeting’s dates, venues and event sequence. Separate reporting the same day indicated ambassadors had cleared draft summit language, but the substantive commitments remained pending formal leader adoption.
• 4 July 2026 · NATO set 7-8 July Ankara summit to formalise defence-spending follow-through and long-term Ukraine support The story shifted from pre-summit signalling to an officially defined alliance process after NATO published summit overview and programme materials on 4 July confirming the 7-8 July Ankara agenda, structure and Ukraine-related engagements.
• 6 July 2026 · NATO’s Ankara summit opened with pressure on allies to submit credible plans for the 2035 defence-spending target The story moved from a political commitment agreed at the 2025 Hague summit to visible implementation pressure at the 7-8 July 2026 Ankara summit, where NATO is seeking annual national plans and framing the next phase around delivery, industrial production and review mechanics rather than a new headline pledge.
• 7 July 2026 · NATO summit in Ankara shifted the alliance’s 2035 defence-spending pledge into annual implementation plans and procurement delivery The story moved from the 2025 Hague pledge itself to enforcement and execution. In Ankara, NATO publicly pressed allies for annual delivery plans and paired that pressure with procurement and co-production announcements meant to show implementation had started.
• 8 July 2026 · NATO adopted the Ankara declaration after its summit, anchoring new alliance surveillance, tanker and AWACS procurement plans The editorial focus shifted from the 7 July procurement reveal to the 8 July Ankara Summit Declaration, which now provides the higher-order political frame for those announcements.
• 8 July 2026 · NATO’s Ankara declaration framed more than $50 billion in alliance capability launches, with some programmes still at negotiation stage The story shifted from a procurement-announcement list to an alliance-level implementation story after NATO issued the Ankara Summit Declaration on 8 July 2026. The key clarification is that not all announced items were finalised contracts: at least the GlobalEye programme remained at negotiation stage.
• 8 July 2026 · NATO adopted Ankara declaration with €70 billion Ukraine pledge for 2026 and new alliance procurement commitments On 8 July 2026, NATO moved from pre-summit positioning and forum announcements to an adopted summit declaration that formally combined a €70 billion Ukraine support pledge for 2026, a stated intent to sustain at least equivalent support in 2027, and more than $50 billion in new procurements with wider industrial commitments.
• 19 September 2026 · NATO moves Ankara defence commitments into military implementation On 18–19 September, NATO military leaders moved the focus from Ankara summit commitments to their implementation across readiness, capabilities, resilience and industrial delivery.
• 22 September 2026 · Long-range attacks continued alongside de-escalation discussions Russia launched a large missile-and-drone attack on Ukraine as Ukraine reported strikes on Russian industrial facilities and prepared to discuss restraint proposals with the United States.
• 23 September 2026 · Ukraine offers reciprocal halt to energy-site strikes; Russia has not responded Ukraine’s post-meeting offer of a reciprocal energy-specific halt is now the central development; the preceding exchange of strikes remains the immediate context.

Some commercial passage through Hormuz has resumed with US naval assistance, but traffic remains below pre-war levels. The UK has authorised limited refuelling support for Saudi defensive missions, while Houthi threats to Saudi-linked shipping continue to expose Bab el-Mandeb traffic; no settlement or general route reopening is established.

Reported partial Hormuz recovery reflects sustained commercial passage rather than isolated escorted movements.

Last material update: 22 September 2026

Sustained transit recovery

Verified shipping data showing whether Hormuz traffic returns toward pre-war levels or reverses after further security incidents.

UK operational activation

Official confirmation that RAF refuelling sorties have begun, alongside any stated extension, review outcome or mandate change.

Published timeline

• 18 August 2026 · Saudi Gulf-side crude loadings continue, but full Hormuz recovery remains unverified Reported tanker movements from 12 to 16 August support continued use of Ras Tanura and Juaymah after the 26 June operational restart.
• 13 September 2026 · Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline remains unconfirmed after attack-related shutdown The material change is the reported temporary loss of the East-West pipeline as a bypass route after the September 12 attack; subsequent Hormuz incidents add security context but do not establish the pipeline’s current operating status.
• 19 September 2026 · Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting a missile aimed at Riyadh The coalition said it intercepted and destroyed a Houthi ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh and disrupted attempted attacks on other Saudi locations.
• 20 September 2026 · Saudi East-West pipeline remains shut as attacks threaten Yanbu Saudi authorities reported on September 19 that they intercepted a ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh and thwarted attempted attacks on civilian infrastructure in Yanbu, while no public pipeline restart had been confirmed by September 20.
• 20 September 2026 · Iran warned of retaliation against US interests and regional allies Iran's military command said a further attack would bring sustained retaliation, without substantiating that a new attack was imminent.
• 20 September 2026 · Houthis declared restrictions on Saudi-linked shipping Houthi representatives said Saudi shipping would be blockaded in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Red Sea; enforcement remains unverified.
• 20 September 2026 · Houthi gains near Bab el-Mandeb sharpen pressure on Saudi-linked shipping On September 20, a Houthi official publicly narrowed the group’s stated maritime targeting to Saudi-linked vessels while maintaining threats against Saudi Arabia; this followed reported Houthi gains at Mokha and nearby islands.
• 21 September 2026 · UK authorised limited refuelling support for Saudi defensive missions The UK announced a time-limited arrangement for one RAF Voyager to refuel Saudi aircraft on defensive missions; sortie commencement was not confirmed.
• 22 September 2026 · Hormuz traffic partially resumed with US naval assistance Commercial passage reportedly improved but remained below pre-war levels, leaving energy-shipping access constrained.