Region coverage
Dated GeoSignal briefings on Ukraine. Read developments, assessment and source references in their original context.
As of 25 August, the Coalition of the Willing has committed to prioritise Ukrainian air defence, deepen defence-industrial and technology cooperation, tighten sanctions enforcement and prepare a multinational force conditional on a credible ceasefire, while Russian long-range attacks continue.
The UK has authorised MBDA to release classified information on UK-origin SCALP components, removing an information-sharing constraint on French and Ukrainian plans to assemble the missile in Ukraine.
Ukrainian authorities said the 21 August Russian double drone strike on Kryvyi Rih’s Sunny Gallery shopping centre killed 16 people and injured 140, with 50 people still hospitalised on 23 August.
Ukrainian authorities’ latest account is that Russian attacks on 21 August killed at least 21 people across Ukraine, including at least 15 at a shopping centre in Kryvyi Rih.
Naftogaz reports that Russian drones and missiles struck its facilities 13 times in the week to 17 August, seriously damaging equipment and production capacity at unspecified sites.
On 25 May 2025, Russia carried out what Ukrainian officials described at the time as the war’s largest combined drone-and-missile barrage, while Russia and Ukraine separately completed a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange without producing a ceasefire.
Mykhailo Drapatyi has been serving as Ukraine’s commander-in-chief since July 22, while parliament is due to vote on acting Defence Minister Yevhen Khmara’s confirmation on August 18 after protests over the wider reshuffle continued at reduced scale.
Russian drones reportedly damaged grain silos and warehouses at Ukraine’s Danube port of Reni on 16 August 2023, but the available evidence does not establish a continuing operational disruption or quantified export losses.
Ukraine has proposed a reciprocal halt to attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea, but Russia has not confirmed receipt of a formal offer and attacks continue to disrupt Ukrainian and Russian export routes.
Ukraine says its forces struck the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refining and petrochemical complex overnight on August 13, while Bashkortostan authorities confirm a drone attack and industrial-zone fire but not the precise facility affected or any operational disruption.
Ukraine’s August 11–12 missile-and-drone attack on Novorossiysk reportedly damaged two grain terminals and halted operations at one, while damage to Russian naval assets, oil-export infrastructure and the duration of port disruption remain unverified.
Ukraine says anti-ship missiles and drones struck air-defence, pier and port infrastructure at Russia’s Novorossiysk naval base overnight on August 12, while Russia reports a wider drone attack in Krasnodar region and retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure.
Ukraine says Russia used North Korean-supplied ballistic missiles in an August 10–11 strike wave that killed at least 10 civilians and forced a damaged Metinvest steel plant in Zaporizhzhia to halt operations.
Russian attacks killed at least 10 civilians in Ukraine on August 11, while President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said a North Korean-supplied ballistic missile was used against Zaporizhzhia and that Pyongyang was preparing further personnel support for Russia.
Reciprocal overnight strikes reported on August 9 caused civilian casualties in Russia’s Belgorod region and Ukraine, while Russia said it targeted logistics, fuel and port-related sites in Kharkiv region and Odesa.
Russian drones and missiles killed four people in Kyiv and the surrounding region overnight into 8 August, as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said reduced Patriot-interceptor deliveries and licensing delays were constraining Ukraine’s anti-ballistic defence.
Ukraine reported further overnight strikes on Russian oil facilities on August 6, including a refinery fire in Yaroslavl region, after a Russian missile-and-drone attack killed 17 people in Kyiv and the surrounding region.
A Russian overnight missile and drone barrage on 5 August killed 17 people and injured at least 44 in Kyiv and the surrounding region, while Ukraine reported no interceptions of incoming missiles and linked the outcome to a shortage of Patriot interceptors.
Russian missile and drone strikes overnight into August 5 killed at least 15 people and injured 42 in Kyiv and the surrounding Kyiv region, according to preliminary Ukrainian official reports.
Russian glide-bomb and drone attacks continued across Ukraine through August 3, while Kyiv said a shortage of Patriot interceptors is constraining its defence against ballistic missiles.
Russian ballistic-missile and drone attacks continued against Ukraine after a July 30 barrage crossed into Poland and triggered a NATO air response, with no verified evidence that Poland was deliberately targeted or that NATO adopted a new posture.
Russia’s August 1 ballistic-missile and drone attack on Kyiv killed at least nine people and wounded 33, according to preliminary Ukrainian official reports, with fires and damage reported across several districts.
Russia's overnight missile-and-drone attack on Kyiv into August 1 shows its long-range strike campaign is continuing, days after a missile crossed into or fell in Poland during a nationwide barrage that prompted NATO aircraft to scramble.
An overnight Russian ballistic-missile and drone attack on Kyiv has killed at least nine people and injured 22, according to preliminary Ukrainian authority reports on August 1.
