Topic coverage
Dated GeoSignal briefings on Strategic Competition. Read developments, assessment and source references in their original context.
An Invesco survey published on June 29, 2026 said sovereign wealth funds and central banks managing $29tn were increasing emphasis on energy security, energy-transition infrastructure, gold and non-US custody options as concern over the dollar’s long-term reserve role rose.
Saudi Arabia resumed crude loadings at Ras Tanura’s Ju'aymah offshore terminal on June 26 after a near four-month halt, indicating partial recovery in Gulf export routing even as security conditions around Hormuz remained unstable.
As of June 27, transit through the Strait of Hormuz had resumed only partially and under tighter routing and security controls, with more stranded tankers exiting and Saudi Aramco restarting loadings at Ras Tanura even after the IMO paused an evacuation operation following a vessel strike near Oman.
China’s June 22 decision to add 10 U.S. entities to its export control list remained in force as of June 26, immediately barring exports and other provision of China-origin dual-use items to those entities unless the Ministry of Commerce approves an exception.
The EU on 25 June 2026 formally renewed its main economic sanctions on Russia for another 12 months, locking in the bloc’s existing trade, finance, energy and oil-import restrictions after leaders had already agreed the extension on 18-19 June.
By June 25, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had been recovering after a June 17 U.S.-Iran memorandum and a June 22 U.S. general license on Iranian oil sales, but a vessel attack in the Gulf of Oman then forced the IMO to pause its evacuation operation.
By 25 June 2026, crude movements through the Strait of Hormuz had recovered enough under the interim U.S.-Iran arrangement to ease immediate supply tightness and push Brent’s prompt structure away from scarcity, though full normalization was not yet confirmed.
By June 24, a mid-June U.S.-Iran agreement, a June 22 U.S. sanctions waiver and June 23 IMO safety arrangements had begun to move stranded tankers and restart some Strait of Hormuz traffic, though conditions remained fragile and commercially uncertain.
24 June 2026 — Taiwan said it was testing immediate-response capability during a five-day combat-readiness exercise after Defence Minister Wellington Koo said warning time for a possible Chinese attack was shortening.
