Intelligence over time
Browse the original dated editions. Historical analysis reflects the evidence and uncertainty at the time, and may differ from the current situation.
EU restrictions on Sudan-origin gold and mining chemicals take effect on 15 July, requiring EU-linked traders, financiers, insurers and suppliers to screen covered transactions and exports.
Nine European partner countries and Ukraine have committed to align national policies with existing EU restrictive measures targeting nine people and 45 entities linked to Russia’s military-industrial complex and shadow fleet.
The United States says its blockade of vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports will begin at 20:00 UTC on July 14, as renewed US-Iran fighting around the Strait of Hormuz raises risks for Gulf shipping and energy flows.
As of 13 July 2026, the United States has announced it will restore a blockade of Iranian ports from 14 July while resuming strikes on Iranian military targets after renewed attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
The EU and 14 countries have reaffirmed the 2016 Philippines–China South China Sea arbitral award as final and binding on the parties, while Beijing continues to reject it and no enforcement mechanism has been announced.
As of 13 July, renewed US-Iran strikes and attacks on commercial vessels have left passage through the Strait of Hormuz insecure and disrupted, with neither side’s claim of control independently established.
Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is closed after a vessel incident, while US strikes on Iranian military targets and Iranian missile and drone attacks on Gulf states leave commercial passage contested and unsafe.
A reported Ukrainian drone strike on an empty tanker entering the Azov-Black Sea Canal on July 12 shows that pressure on the maritime route serving Russian-held Crimea is continuing, although the scale and operational effect of earlier vessel strikes remain disputed.
US Central Command says it struck about 140 targets in Iran on 12 July after a Cyprus-flagged container ship was damaged in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian attacks extended toward several Gulf states hosting US forces.
US forces have renewed strikes on Iranian military targets after a container ship was attacked in or near the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran says the waterway is closed and attacks have spread to US-linked facilities across Gulf states.
Successive Russian missile and drone attacks on July 11–12 killed at least eight people in later reporting and wounded dozens across Ukraine, increasing Kyiv’s immediate demand for faster delivery of air-defence systems and interceptor missiles.
As of 11 July 2026, Japan and the EU were considering additional measures against the shipping network used for Russian oil exports after recent Ukrainian strikes on tankers tied to fuel supply routes serving occupied Crimea, but no new decision had been confirmed.
NATO leaders issued the Ankara Summit Declaration on 8 July after the Ankara summit, and the major procurement announcements unveiled at the 7 July defence industry forum now sit as implementation of that alliance-level decision.
As of 10 July 2026, the United States had revoked its 21 June authorization for openly licensed Iranian oil sales, replaced it with a wind-down-only license through 17 July, and resumed strikes on Iran after new shipping attacks in and near the Strait of Hormuz.
By 9 July 2026, the United States said its interim ceasefire with Iran was over and launched a fresh round of strikes, while tighter US restrictions on Iranian oil trade and renewed shipping insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz remained in force.
By 8 July 2026, the United States said it had completed an additional wave of strikes on Iranian military targets tied to reported attacks on three commercial vessels in and near the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. also replaced its 21 June Iran oil authorisation with a wind-down licence and Iran claimed retaliatory attacks on U.S. sites in Bahrain and Kuwait.
After reported attacks on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States struck Iranian targets early on 8 July and replaced its earlier Iran oil-sales authorization with a wind-down measure, while Iran retaliated against Bahrain and Kuwait and tanker turn-backs extended the disruption.
China said a PLA Navy strategic nuclear submarine launched a strategic missile with a dummy warhead into designated Pacific high seas waters on 6 July 2026, and by 7 July regional objections had widened from Australia, New Zealand and Japan to broader Pacific political protest.
A tanker was struck and set on fire near Limah, Oman, on 7 July, reinforcing that commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz remained exposed to an ongoing, officially warned attack environment.
On 6 July 2026, the International Maritime Organization said 44 seafarers were still being held aboard MT Honour 25, Eureka and Sward after separate hijackings between April and May off Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden, underscoring renewed piracy risk in the western Indian Ocean.
China and Russia formally opened the Joint Sea-2026 naval exercise near Qingdao on July 6 after Beijing announced the plan on July 5, with drills due to run through July 13 and a later joint Pacific patrol still pending.
As of July 5, 2026, a Ukrainian long-range drone attack had reached the St Petersburg area, with Russian authorities acknowledging a hit on oil infrastructure in the Kirovsky district and saying 72 drones were downed over the city and wider Leningrad region, while lasting disruption remained unverified.
NATO confirmed that its Ankara summit will take place on 7-8 July 2026, while reported draft language on Article 5 and multi-year military support for Ukraine remained pending leader-level adoption.
As of 1 July 2026, the EU has been applying a temporary €3 customs duty to low-value consignments of up to €150 imported from outside the bloc, ending the previous duty exemption and putting an interim regime in place until 1 July 2028 unless extended.
