Intelligence over time
Browse the original dated editions. Historical analysis reflects the evidence and uncertainty at the time, and may differ from the current situation.
On July 25, Yemen’s Houthi movement said it struck Aramco-linked sites in Jizan and Yanbu, while Saudi-aligned forces reported retaliatory strikes in Yemen; the escalation extends the confrontation from Saudi-linked shipping to fixed energy infrastructure, with damage and export effects still unconfirmed.
China’s 24 July export-control listing of 14 EU entities is in force, restricting direct and third-country transfers of China-origin dual-use items in response to the EU’s latest Russia sanctions package.
Bangladesh President Mohammed Shahabuddin resigned on 24 July, with Parliament Speaker Hafiz Uddin Ahmad assuming presidential duties until lawmakers elect a successor.
As of 24 July, US Central Command says it has completed a 13th consecutive night of strikes in Iran aimed at reducing threats to commercial shipping, while Bahrain has issued shelter warnings and Houthi actions have raised risks for Saudi-linked shipping in the Red Sea.
EU ambassadors reached political agreement on a 21st sanctions package against Russia on 23 July after a reported time-limited exemption allowed eligible EU operators to transfer Russian LNG to third-country customers under specified conditions.
A Saudi-flagged tanker caught fire after being struck in the Red Sea, providing the first confirmed operational test of Houthi restrictions on Saudi-linked shipping near Bab el-Mandeb.
As of 22 July, the Houthi-declared embargo on Saudi-linked shipping is prompting tanker reversals and higher maritime-risk assessments around Bab el-Mandeb, though a full closure of the strait has not been verified.
EU ambassadors are meeting on 22 July to seek agreement on a proposed 21st sanctions package against Russia after Greek objections left elements of the draft unresolved.
As of 21 July, continued attacks and security risks around the Strait of Hormuz are keeping commercial navigation and oil-export logistics severely disrupted, with a tanker reportedly attacked off Oman and the IMO evacuation framework still paused.
As of July 21, U.S. strikes on Iranian military targets and an Iran-linked tanker attack off Oman are sustaining a confrontation that has sharply reduced commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
As of July 20, the United States is sustaining an expanded strike campaign against Iranian military and maritime capabilities while enforcing its announced blockade on Iranian ports; Iranian retaliation has reached Gulf states and Jordan, and commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz is materially disrupted.
ASEAN foreign ministers due to meet in Manila on July 21 are expected to call for safe, unimpeded and continuous transit through the Strait of Hormuz, citing the effects of Middle East hostilities on regional trade, energy and food security.
ASEAN begins consultations on Myanmar in Metro Manila on July 20, ahead of its main foreign ministers’ meeting on July 21, where ministers are expected to address the Myanmar conflict, South China Sea disputes and the Middle East conflict.
As of July 19, the reported US blockade of Iranian ports remains operative amid continuing US-Iran strikes, regional missile and drone activity, and sharply reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Russian authorities reported that drone strikes overnight into 18 July caused fires at warehouse sites in Kotovsk and Elektrostal and an oil depot in Noginsk, with nine deaths, more than 80 injuries and precautionary evacuations reported.
Iran said on July 18 it had suspended implementation of commitments under its interim arrangement with the United States, while a seventh consecutive night of US strikes, Iranian attacks on Gulf infrastructure and fresh attacks on merchant vessels heightened risk around the Strait of Hormuz.
As of July 18, Russian attacks on Ukrainian port areas and reported Ukrainian operations against Russian maritime logistics are exposing commercial shipping in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov to sustained conflict risk, disrupting some port activity without closing the wider Ukrainian export corridor.
US enforcement actions and strikes linked to its reported blockade of Iranian ports are constraining passage through the Strait of Hormuz, although available data do not show a complete halt to navigation.
As of July 17, Iran is reported to have asked Yemen’s Houthis to stand ready to close Bab el-Mandeb if U.S. strikes hit Iranian power infrastructure, but there is no public confirmation of an order, a closure or a new shipping attack campaign.
The October 2025 Gaza ceasefire remains formally in place as of 17 July, but Israeli strikes on 14–15 July, expanding access-restricted areas and constrained cargo access continue to undermine its implementation.
Israeli strikes and shelling killed at least five Palestinians across Gaza on 16 July, extending a pattern of lethal incidents while the ceasefire that took effect on 10 October 2025 remains formally in force.
As of 16 July, US forces are actively enforcing their renewed blockade of Iranian ports after disabling a tanker bound for Kharg Island, while Iran has launched missiles and drones toward Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait.
The United States has renewed its naval blockade of Iranian ports and conducted further strikes, while Iran says the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and maritime access through the chokepoint is contested.
The United States has restored a maritime blockade on Iranian ports, oil terminals and coastal waters, creating an active enforcement regime for Iran-linked shipping while fighting around the Strait of Hormuz keeps navigation hazardous.
